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Thursday, 12 January 2012

The year that was (2011) and the year that will be (2012)…


The Time magazine in its latest issue has named the Protester (be it from Tahrir square, Syria, Iran, The Wall Street, or London) as the person of the year. The year 2011 was dotted with controversies and speculations alike at home as well as on the foreign turf.
It started with the Arab spring, which swept the Mubarak and Gaddafi regimes off their feet; restoring the people’s power in Egypt and Libya respectively. The spring moved on to the Occupy Wall street protests by winter. The whole year saw ‘Merkozy’ meets trying to find a possible solution to the Euro Zone crisis. Greece was given financial aid and was told to mend its deficit by 2013. The rest of the debtors were expected not to follow Greece’s path (of glory?!)
Time and again, the meets only discussed the present, providing no concrete solution to the problem at hand. The employment situation has steadily worsened across Europe, with the usual suspects’ (PIIGS) average unemployment rate hovering in the double digit level.

Leaders from Europe’s two strongest economies (Germany and France) met recently to discuss ways to boost growth in euro zone states struggling to overcome the sovereign debt crisis and rising unemployment, and finalize a deal to increase fiscal coordination within the union.

But these talks and summits have been dragged on for some time now and with Greece hanging in the by lanes hoping for a verdict on its side, it’s difficult to see which way the pendulum will swing. Compounding the challenge, both Greece and France face elections early this year.  A major hurdle however in the recovery process includes the slowing labour market and domestic demand.

London in the midst of this was burning under racial riots.

The US seems only a tad better off than Europe. Its economy grew by 1.8% in the last three months to September 2011. A major plus for the US is the decline in its unemployment rate, which dropped to 8.5% in December. From April through October, the unemployment rate remained in the range of 9.0 to 9.2%. The Federal Reserve meanwhile has not closed doors on accommodative policies. The country will also now face elections in Nov’ 2012 and it remains to be seen how the common man benefits in this race to the White House.

Economists have predicted more tough times ahead.

On the domestic front the economy was losing steam, GDP growth had started slowing down with the industrial production growth rate in the negative. High inflation was putting pressure on the interest rates and on top of this the currency had started depreciating against the US Dollar.

On the political front, wrong economic decisions cost European politicians their power seats. (Italian PM Berlusconi's government was overthrown).  Indian politics too is going through tough times, with Team Anna protesting against the Lokpal bill, and the overall political gridlock. Major Indian states will go in for the Lok Sabha poll this year and the fate of the current ruling party hangs on... Let’s pray that this won’t turn out to be a note for vote election.  

All in all the year 2011 was tumultuous. Here’s hoping that 2012 will bring peace and prosperity to all…  



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